The Information No One Wants You To Look At Regarding Ebola and Travel

Ebola is a deadly virus that has killed hundreds of individuals in West Africa so far in 2014. This is the worst recorded outbreak of the virus. The fatality rate of Ebola can be as high as 90%. No vaccine is available, nor is there any specific treatment. Originating in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, cases have been confirmed in Nigeria, Senegal and the U.S.

2014 Ebola Outbreak
Sources: World Health Organization (who.int), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (cdc.gov)

I happened to have a few minutes today and through some in-depth search of the internet found this unbelievable website with a live feed and projections of the Ebola Virus and its spread in the United States and around the world. 

They (Mobs-Lab.org) have developed a model showing the progression of the epidemic in West Africa and its international spread based on probability and under the assumption that the EVD outbreak continues to evolve at the current rate. 
The websites results have been published in PLOS Currents Outbreaks. However, due to the need for a rapid assessment of the EVD outbreak trends they developed these models to aid in the assessment of the EVD outbreak trends. The obtained results may change as more information becomes available from the EVD affected region and more refined sensitivity analysis can be implemented computationally. For this reason, the paper on PLOS Current Outbreaks should be considered “a live paper” that is constantly updated with new information, data, projections and analysis. 
In this web page they try to provide a home for such a “live” paper. More in general they link to constantly updated versions of the paper, new figures/analysis and supplementary data files. Effectively, if you are wanting to see forecast of the Ebola Virus without political or media bias it is a great resource.

Projections for the number of cases with the current growth rate

Projections for the number of cases with the current growth rate

 

Top 30 countries ranked according to EVD importation risk.

Case importation probability projection for 24 October 2014

Traffic reduction achieves only a 3-4 weeks delay in the growth of the case importation probability.

Travel Reduction as of October 6, 2014

Past Projections

If you are really wanting to read all the data of the PLOS CURRENTS OUTBREAK http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/assessing-the-international-spreading-risk-associated-with-the-2014-west-african-ebola-outbreak/



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